Because of the ongoing pressure from uncertain global economies on key currency pairings, the forex market has remained extremely volatile.
The most recent trading behaviour across a range of currency pairs reveals important domains in which traders are responding to outside influences like choices made by central banks, changes in geopolitics, and variations in the price of commodities.
Also Read: Gold and Silver Prices for October 14, 2024: Fluctuations Mark the Start of the Week
AUD/USD
Over the past week, the Australian dollar has shown very little movement and has struggled to gather pace. In spite of this, market players think that as buyers cautiously enter the market, the AUD/USD pair might be creating a base.
The 0.6850 and 0.6925 levels are being keenly watched by traders in case there is a breakout that would indicate a stronger upward trend.
EUR/USD
The euro continues to hover around the crucial 1.09 level against the US dollar. This area has historically acted as both support and resistance, and current activity indicates that traders are unsure about the euro’s next move.
The broader trend shows a consolidation phase that has persisted for several years. With the US dollar strengthening, attention will be on Federal Reserve speeches and global macroeconomic data that could trigger more decisive moves. The EUR/USD is trading below its 100-day moving average of 1.0935, with technical indicators pointing to potential bearish momentum.
The EUR/USD continues to face selling pressure around the 1.0900 threshold. Chinese economic news, including missed trade balance expectations and vague stimulus promises, weighed on the euro.
Speeches from Federal Reserve officials could provide more clues regarding future monetary policy directions.
Short-term Outlook: The pair looks set to continue its decline, as technical indicators remain bearish. A break below 1.0890 could open the door to further losses toward the 1.0850 and 1.0810 support levels. Resistance remains at 1.0935, with any upward movement likely capped by this level in the short term.
GBP/USD
The British pound continues to face downward pressure, with the GBP/USD pair breaking below its 50% retracement level of the move from the August low to the September high.
The pair is currently trading around 1.3036, with further downside risk targeting the 1.3000 level. Below that, the 1.2945 level, marked by the daily cloud base, could come into play as a support zone.
Bearish momentum remains strong, but traders are watching for potential headwinds as the pair nears oversold territory.
The GBP/USD pair is breaking below the 50% midpoint of the move from August’s low to September’s high, near 1.3048, signaling a bearish continuation. The next key target is 1.3000, close to the September 11 low.
A breakdown below this level could lead the pair toward the 1.2958 and 1.2940 levels.Near-Term Bias: Negative momentum continues to strengthen, with the daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen diverging, signaling a bearish trend. Resistance remains at 1.3071, and bulls are unlikely to take control unless a break above this occurs.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar faced heavy selling pressure after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
This move sent the NZD/USD pair sharply lower, testing support at the 0.60 level. If the market breaks below the current weekly candlestick’s low, a further drop toward the 0.5850 level could be on the cards.
If the pair manages to reverse and climb above the previous week’s high, traders may aim for the 0.6350 level.
USD/CHF
The US dollar’s performance against the Swiss franc has been erratic, with traders looking for direction. The 0.86 level continues to act as a resistance point, and a break above this could lead to a push toward the 0.8750 level.
On the downside, a break below the week’s candlestick could lead to a move toward the 0.84 level, which remains a crucial psychological support.
USD/CAD
The US dollar has gained ground against the Canadian dollar, with the USD/CAD pair eyeing the 1.39 resistance level.
A breakout above this could lead the pair to test the psychologically significant 1.40 level. Traders are likely to use any short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities, with expectations that the pair could continue to rise in the near term.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil saw significant volatility throughout the week as it remains at a crucial inflection point. The market is still within a broader consolidation phase, with no clear direction established.
Traders are closely monitoring whether the next move will break above or below the current candlestick formation, signaling either a bullish or bearish trend.
CAD/JPY
The Canadian dollar has struggled to break through the 110 level against the Japanese yen, with this level acting as a major resistance point.
The 50-week EMA is also reinforcing this barrier, although there remains solid support underneath. Traders expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its loose monetary policy, leading many to adopt a “buy the dip” strategy as the yen continues to face pressure.
NASDAQ 100
In equity markets, the NASDAQ 100 index continued to display strong bullish momentum. After a brief pullback, buyers stepped in, pushing the index toward fresh highs.
The “buy-the-dip” behavior is likely to continue, with market sentiment remaining strongly positive. Traders seem reluctant to short the index, indicating continued confidence in its upward trajectory.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair saw renewed upward momentum, with the price breaking above key resistance at 149.356, a level that has held since mid-August. The pair is now trading above the August high, moving toward the 150.757 level, representing the 50% midpoint of the move from July highs to September lows.
With converging 100- and 200-day moving averages near 151.50 – 151.70, traders are watching the 150.00 psychological level for further resistance. Continued strength in the US dollar could push the pair higher, with upside targets firmly in sight.
This article from SMJ contains information solely for general informational purposes; it is not intended to be a suggestion for any particular investing strategy or as financial advice. Despite having taken every precaution to guarantee the accuracy of the material, SMJ disclaims all express and implied warranties and representations on the content’s reliability, accuracy, and completeness. Trading forex is highly risky and isn’t always appropriate for all investors. Future outcomes cannot be predicted based on past performance. Always research and speak with a licensed financial counselor when deciding what to buy.
