As the Indian stock market gears up for the start of the week, investors are keeping a close eye on key indicators pointing toward a positive opening on October 14.
Buoyed by encouraging movements in global markets, the outlook seems optimistic for domestic indices, including the Sensex and Nifty 50.
Data from Gift Nifty suggests a mildly positive start, as it hovers around 25,085, reflecting a 35-point premium over the previous close of Nifty futures.
This subtle rise signals potential recovery after Friday’s market dip, where the Nifty 50 closed at 24,964.25, down by 34.20 points, and the Sensex dropped by 230.05 points, finishing at 81,381.36.
Despite last week’s downward momentum, technical experts are hinting at possible stability. Friday’s market action saw a narrow trading range, with Nifty forming a small negative candle.
Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities, highlights the market’s recent high wave patterns as a sign of selling pressure easing, which could allow bulls to regroup.
While Nifty remains volatile near its support level of 24,500, there’s growing anticipation of a potential rebound from these or other support zones.
Aditya Agarwal, Head of Derivatives & Technical Analysis at Sanctum Wealth, advises that the Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase, with key levels to watch between 24,800 and 25,320.
Agarwal sees strong resistance at 25,200 and suggests booking profits if the index approaches that level. On the downside, support remains firm at 24,900 and 24,840. This range-bound movement may define the index’s behavior in the coming sessions.
From another angle, Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in, notes that Nifty’s breach of the previous day’s low indicates further downside risks.
The increased call writing at the 25,000 mark adds to the bearish sentiment, with the market likely experiencing sideways or negative bias. VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, echoes these concerns, emphasizing a “sell on rise” strategy for investors amid the current trend.
Ambala points to support at 24,820 and 24,675, with resistance positioned at 25,120 and 25,245.
The Bank Nifty, which also faced selling pressure on Friday, saw a dip of 358.60 points, closing at 51,172.30. The index is now being closely monitored for its next move.
Dr. Dwarakanath warns that the stochastic oscillator nearing overbought territory could signal further declines. He highlights that immediate support for Bank Nifty stands at 50,200, with increased call writing at 51,000 and 51,500 levels hinting at downside risks.
Aditya Agarwal provides a more tempered view, suggesting that short-term corrections toward 51,000 or 50,800 could be buying opportunities.
That said, any movement beyond 52,200 should be seen as a chance to lock in profits. Agarwal adds that a close below 50,400 would negate any bullish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines toward 50,000 or even 49,600.
The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential rebounds tempered by ongoing volatility. Keep an eye on global cues, which will likely continue to influence domestic indices throughout the day.
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The information and analysis provided in this article by SMJ (Stock Market Journal) are for informational purposes only. SMJ does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information presented. Market conditions are subject to change, and past performance does not indicate future results. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. SMJ will not be held responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of the information contained in this article.
